UNCERTAINTY
Uncertainty in infrastructure projects, is related to the context in which we are operating and the assumptions we make about the future.
CONTEXT
Context is important because it can provide the:
- objectives that may be affected by uncertainty
- scale of the change – is it a standalone change, or part of a much larger programme of works – this will affect which process is used to manage the uncertainty
- complexity of the change – this too can affect the process used to manage uncertainty
- extent of information required by Decision Makers – this will affect the level and type of analysis used to assess the risk exposure
ASSUMPTIONS
Assumptions are everywhere, we often replace a lack of knowledge with something that we believe to be a fact or a possibility.
It is important to understand that there are 2 main types of assumptions:
- Explicit – those we make consciously
- Implicit – those we are not aware we are making
Assumptions are an important source of risks and drive the context in which risks are assessed, and ultimately whether the risk is a threat or an opportunity.
For example, if we have assumed that a particular event, that has potential to impact project objectives, will (or will not) happen, when the occurrence of that event is different to the assumption, it can represent a risk to the project.
We make assumptions without realising. Sometimes explicit assumptions are built on a raft of unconsciously made implicit assumptions, representing hidden risks to the project.
