We can’t predict the future.

There are an almost infinite number of potential outcomes in any situation, as the number of connections and interfaces grow, so do the potential outcomes.

This is an illustration of Metcalfe’s Law that states as you increase the number of nodes (could be projects, contracts, stakeholders etc), the number of connections rises exponentially.  


Instead of trying to predict which of the infinite possible futures will occur, we can build up a statistical picture of what we think certain dimensions of the future will be and use this to assist in decision making.

In a complex situation, the number of interfaces we expect project teams to manage can be enormous and continuously changing, each interface generates uncertainty.

{Ironically, the same thing applies in numerical models – it is the interfaces within the model which are the biggest source of uncertainty in terms of the model outputs and their relation to some potential future reality}

© 2021 Robinson Consultants Ltd